Euro area inflation forecast for the next three months
Headline HICP forecast median and 10–90% predictive range.
Macroeconomic research tools
MakroScenario: Build your own macro view.
See the full range of macroeconomic outcomes, not just a single forecast.
Interactive scenario simulation grounded in the latest research. Adjust your assumptions and see how they shift forecast distributions, monetary policy, and economic risks.
Latest indicators
Euro area outlook at a glance
Euro area central bankers disagreement index
Dispersion in policymakers’ inflation and growth outlooks before meetings.
Dashboards
Explore recent research through interactive tools, including my own work and that of others. Hover over the charts for details and change the assumptions to explore alternative scenarios.
Euro area inflation
Density forecasts of euro area headline and core HICP inflation from a quantile regression forest, with a scenario simulator for alternative paths.
- Out-of-sample and latest predictive densities, 1–6 months ahead
- TreeSHAP attribution of the drivers behind each forecast
- Nonlinear scenario simulator with CSV download
- ECB policy indicator based on a forward-looking Taylor rule
Central bank speeches
A text-analysis view of central bank communication: what policymakers talk about, how it changes over time and what it signals for the euro area outlook.
- Euro area inflation and growth outlook indices from speeches
- Policymaker disagreement and demand-versus-supply uncertainty
- Topic shares over time and by institution
- Top words for each estimated topic
About the project
MakroScenario is a personal project exploring macroeconomic forecasts, scenario analysis and central bank communication. The dashboards make the underlying models transparent and let you test how forecasts respond to different assumptions.
- Updates: I aim to update the dashboards monthly.
- Feedback: questions and suggestions are welcome at tamas.vasi@makroscenario.dk.